Biomed Rounds: Will Biogen�s Tysabri make a comeback in 2006?

12/27/2005 08:19 AM

By Dyke Hendrickson

Looking ahead to 2006, here is a list of predictions from Your Scribe, who doesn�t always see 20-20, even in hindsight: Tysabri will be brought back onto the market. The multiple-sclerosis drug is a potential blockbuster for Biogen Idec Inc., but the Cambridge company pulled it from the shelves in early 2005 after three deaths caused by a rare brain disease were linked to the compound. The evidence that Tysabri was the direct cause is scant. Subsequent tests by Biogen Idec have persuaded the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to re-investigate the data, and at some point in 2006 give it the green light. One variable: MS patients want the drug, and they themselves are pressuring regulatory officials to help bring back the medication. Vertex Pharmaceuticals will emerge as a biotech titan. The Cambridge company, led by chief executive Joshua Boger, has had a roller-coaster ride in its 16-year history. Its stock was selling at close to $100 per share in 2001, but fell to about $15 in early 2005. But it is up to $27 per share now, on the strength of good data and strengthened partnerships. It recently reported encouraging test results for its hepatitis C compound. And in recent years it has enhanced partnerships with a range of large allies, including Aventis SA; GlaxoSmithKline plc; Novartis Pharma AG; Merck & Co. Inc.; Mitsubishi Pharma Corp.; and Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Therapeutics Inc. It also has collaboration agreements with Schering AG and Eli Lilly and Co. It appears that the company, which employs about 725, has reached the tipping point, and is ready to join the select few of �mature� bio techs that are making progress in the lengthy struggle for prosperity. Or it could be purchased by one of the giants with whom it has a partnership. Cambridge will be recognized as �Institute City.� The community has dominant universities, of course, that bring in millions in research funds. Now the cachet of its scientific community is drawing in donations in the multiple millions. The Broad Institute recently received word that it would receive another $100 million donation from the Eli Broad family in California, making the Broad contribution $200 million over barely two years. Other new institutes that have been created by multimillion-dollar gifts include the McGovern, Picower, Deshpande, and years ago, the Whitehead. When economic demographers run their numbers each year to determine which markets have the most vibrant presence in the life sciences, metro Boston will be at the top of the list. Hologic Corp. will be purchased by a major corporation desiring to enter the imaging field. The company is a leader in digital imaging, which is among the �can�t miss� technologies of the upcoming year. And Hologic, headed by Jack Cumming, is coming up to speed. Its stock price in late 2004 was hovering near $10 per share. But as 2005 comes to an end, the share price is at $37 per share. That is because it has focused on the development, manufacture and supply of diagnostic and medical imaging systems, primarily serving the health care needs of women. Its areas of concentration are osteoporosis assessment, breast cancer detection, and direct capture X-ray detectors for digital radiography applications. The company has strategic alliances with giants such as Siemens AG. Though Hologic has 870 employees, it is still �small enough� to be gobbled up by a market giant seeking to enter this prosperous field. Biotech and pharma companies will lobby furiously to oppose the federal government�s intervention in discussion of the price of pharmaceuticals. The feds will become more involved in 2006 when the Medicare drug prescription benefit becomes available to about 40 million seniors. Some industry analysts say cheap-drug advocates will urge the government to �buy in en masse,� as it does for recipients of benefits from the Veterans Administration. Both patients and advocates complain that many drugs cost too much. A recent media report reflected the fact that a drug produced by Genzyme for a rare disease costs close to $600,000 per year � for one patient. It�s likely that medication populists will seize on such unusual situations to call for less expensive medications. They have certainly done that in the �buy Canada� campaign that has been popular in Springfield, Cambridge and other communities in recent years. But the biotechs and pharmas are already getting ready to hold the line on their belief that the �for profit� produces better life-saving medications.

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